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The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5 percent in the months ahead. It will escalate the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, which in turn will be a shot in the arm for the Australian dollar. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5 percent in the months ahead. It will escalate the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, which in turn will be a shot in the arm for the Australian dollar.

Stephen Koukoulas

The Australian dollar should be doing better in the short term because the rate differential is still supportive. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The Australian dollar should be doing better in the short term because the rate differential is still supportive.

Stephen Koukoulas

The aim of this rise is to cause consumers to stop spending and borrowing and it will work in that direction. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The aim of this rise is to cause consumers to stop spending and borrowing and it will work in that direction.

Stephen Koukoulas

The news should provide support for the Australian dollar with a hint that the trade balance will continue to narrow. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The news should provide support for the Australian dollar with a hint that the trade balance will continue to narrow.

Stephen Koukoulas

Underlying inflation is still sufficiently strong for the RBA to maintain a fairly strong bias to increase interest rates in the months ahead, although the urgency for a rate rise is not yet extreme. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Underlying inflation is still sufficiently strong for the RBA to maintain a fairly strong bias to increase interest rates in the months ahead, although the urgency for a rate rise is not yet extreme.

Stephen Koukoulas

Australia's current account is still at an uncomfortable level. We haven't yet seen the big pickup in exports we need to generate a narrowing in the current account. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Australia's current account is still at an uncomfortable level. We haven't yet seen the big pickup in exports we need to generate a narrowing in the current account.

Stephen Koukoulas

For the New Zealand dollar it looks like one-way traffic. The scenario for cutting rates is now realistic, if not urgent. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

For the New Zealand dollar it looks like one-way traffic. The scenario for cutting rates is now realistic, if not urgent.

Stephen Koukoulas

Retail spending is recovering nicely with a solid momentum occurring since May. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Retail spending is recovering nicely with a solid momentum occurring since May.

Stephen Koukoulas

We are still waiting for an improvement in trade to fuel the economy. The trade deficit has been large for a long time. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

We are still waiting for an improvement in trade to fuel the economy. The trade deficit has been large for a long time.

Stephen Koukoulas

The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. The prospect of an interest-rate move higher in the months ahead will mean the Australian dollar will find some friends. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. The prospect of an interest-rate move higher in the months ahead will mean the Australian dollar will find some friends.

Stephen Koukoulas

We are just hoping the export sector kicks into growth during 2006. Improvement in the trade deficit has been a long-time coming. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

We are just hoping the export sector kicks into growth during 2006. Improvement in the trade deficit has been a long-time coming.

Stephen Koukoulas

Hopefully we will see trade contribute to economic growth this year after detracting for so long. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Hopefully we will see trade contribute to economic growth this year after detracting for so long.

Stephen Koukoulas

Housing construction is likely to be weak into the first half of 2006 and possibly beyond. It works against the tightening bias of the Reserve Bank. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Housing construction is likely to be weak into the first half of 2006 and possibly beyond. It works against the tightening bias of the Reserve Bank.

Stephen Koukoulas

If you want sustained growth you need business investment to help drive it. The growth report combined with the election victory is good news: investors for years have been crying out for reform and have been hoping the Japanese economy can sustain growth. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

If you want sustained growth you need business investment to help drive it. The growth report combined with the election victory is good news: investors for years have been crying out for reform and have been hoping the Japanese economy can sustain growth.

Stephen Koukoulas

I'm always worried with the consensus being unambiguously strong and unrelenting in the view they hold. But at this stage, maybe it's so obvious that the consensus may be right. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

I'm always worried with the consensus being unambiguously strong and unrelenting in the view they hold. But at this stage, maybe it's so obvious that the consensus may be right.

Stephen Koukoulas

[Any hopes that] the Reserve Bank could hold off raising interest rates have been dashed, ... If the bank is going to contain inflation in 2006 and 2007, they have got to keep raising rates. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

[Any hopes that] the Reserve Bank could hold off raising interest rates have been dashed, ... If the bank is going to contain inflation in 2006 and 2007, they have got to keep raising rates.

Stephen Koukoulas

Inflation is accelerating to worrisome levels. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Inflation is accelerating to worrisome levels.

Stephen Koukoulas

It is simply too early to tell, - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

It is simply too early to tell,

Stephen Koukoulas

There is still a huge amount of resilience in the consumer side of the economy, - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

There is still a huge amount of resilience in the consumer side of the economy,

Stephen Koukoulas

They've set the groundwork for a rate rise in October. They've been disappointed by how persistently high inflation is and how the economy just hasn't cooled off in a way they would've liked it to. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

They've set the groundwork for a rate rise in October. They've been disappointed by how persistently high inflation is and how the economy just hasn't cooled off in a way they would've liked it to.

Stephen Koukoulas

The economy has come through a soft patch and is looking strong, - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The economy has come through a soft patch and is looking strong,

Stephen Koukoulas

Growth momentum means offshore investors want to put their money in Australia. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Growth momentum means offshore investors want to put their money in Australia.

Stephen Koukoulas

We're short-term fans of the Australian dollar. The global demand for commodities is incredibly strong because of the global economy, which is doing very well. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

We're short-term fans of the Australian dollar. The global demand for commodities is incredibly strong because of the global economy, which is doing very well.

Stephen Koukoulas

Our view is that US80ÃÂ¢ is certainly achievable by year-end, - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Our view is that US80ÃÂ¢ is certainly achievable by year-end,

Stephen Koukoulas

If RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard needed more information to stop hiking interest rates, the house-building consents data today fit the bill. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

If RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard needed more information to stop hiking interest rates, the house-building consents data today fit the bill.

Stephen Koukoulas

There's an opportunity to buy U.S. dollars on the expectation that by the second half of this year U.S. strength will be sustained. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

There's an opportunity to buy U.S. dollars on the expectation that by the second half of this year U.S. strength will be sustained.

Stephen Koukoulas

With the core inflation readings fly-papered to a narrow range around 2.5 per cent, there is scope for the RBA to continue its rates-on-hold strategy for several more months. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

With the core inflation readings fly-papered to a narrow range around 2.5 per cent, there is scope for the RBA to continue its rates-on-hold strategy for several more months.

Stephen Koukoulas

The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should.

Stephen Koukoulas

The Fed will pause at 4.75 percent. After this month they will sit back for a couple of meetings to judge how the economy unfolds. That could be the catalyst for further dollar weakness. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The Fed will pause at 4.75 percent. After this month they will sit back for a couple of meetings to judge how the economy unfolds. That could be the catalyst for further dollar weakness.

Stephen Koukoulas

Some of the highest interest rates in the world keep demand for the currency strong. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Some of the highest interest rates in the world keep demand for the currency strong.

Stephen Koukoulas

The strong employment gains intensify upside inflation risks. Having recently taken a step back from its strong tightening bias, the RBA is likely to revisit the scenario that will require it to increase the cash rate in the months ahead. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The strong employment gains intensify upside inflation risks. Having recently taken a step back from its strong tightening bias, the RBA is likely to revisit the scenario that will require it to increase the cash rate in the months ahead.

Stephen Koukoulas

A big increase could certainly get the Reserve Bank a little nervous. They'd be very close to pulling the trigger, raising the rate. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

A big increase could certainly get the Reserve Bank a little nervous. They'd be very close to pulling the trigger, raising the rate.

Stephen Koukoulas

A mid-year interest rate cut is looking less likely. We had forecast a rate cut in July. That's looking a lot shakier after today's number. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

A mid-year interest rate cut is looking less likely. We had forecast a rate cut in July. That's looking a lot shakier after today's number.

Stephen Koukoulas

We forecast the Reserve Bank will raise rates by the middle of the year as it works to damp inflation pressures that are still pronounced. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

We forecast the Reserve Bank will raise rates by the middle of the year as it works to damp inflation pressures that are still pronounced.

Stephen Koukoulas

The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged, - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged,

Stephen Koukoulas

The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged.

Stephen Koukoulas

The case for a rate hike, while not totally compelling yet, is gaining a bit of momentum with these sort of numbers. On an interest-rate-differential and growth story, it should put the Australian dollar back in focus and see it move higher. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The case for a rate hike, while not totally compelling yet, is gaining a bit of momentum with these sort of numbers. On an interest-rate-differential and growth story, it should put the Australian dollar back in focus and see it move higher.

Stephen Koukoulas

The idea is that there will be more tax payers around in the future to support the retired. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The idea is that there will be more tax payers around in the future to support the retired.

Stephen Koukoulas

The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation.

Stephen Koukoulas

Clearly they are seeing inflationary risks coming through, and they feel obliged to ensure that inflationary pressures don't build further some time down the track. - Stephen Koukoulas Quotes

Clearly they are seeing inflationary risks coming through, and they feel obliged to ensure that inflationary pressures don't build further some time down the track.

Stephen Koukoulas

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